Shares of Southern Copper Corporation traded sharply higher, closing at $188.41, up 2.23% on the session, as investors continued to position ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings release. The stock has staged a powerful recovery from last week’s lows, reflecting renewed confidence in the copper price cycle and strong sector-wide momentum across basic materials.

Over the past five trading days, SCCO has gained more than 4%, reclaiming levels near recent highs and significantly outperforming the broader market. Year-to-date, the stock is already up over 31%, dwarfing the S&P 500’s low single-digit advance.

Performance Versus the Market

Southern Copper’s longer-term performance highlights just how powerful the current copper-driven cycle has been. The stock has delivered returns exceeding 100% over the past year, nearly 190% over three years, and more than 240% over five years, placing it among the top-performing large-cap materials names globally. This sustained outperformance underscores the market’s willingness to reward scale, asset quality, and cash-flow durability in the mining space.

Earnings Momentum and Operating Trends

Recent earnings trends remain constructive. Southern Copper has beaten earnings expectations in three consecutive quarters, with Q3 FY25 earnings per share coming in at $1.34, ahead of estimates. Revenue has also shown steady expansion, reaching $3.38 billion in the most recent quarter, supported by higher realized copper prices and disciplined cost control.

Analyst estimates point to continued strength. Current-year earnings are expected to rise meaningfully, with next-year EPS projected above $6.00, reflecting both volume stability and favorable pricing assumptions. Revenue growth estimates remain well above market averages, reinforcing the view that SCCO is leveraged to structural copper demand rather than short-term cyclical noise.

Valuation and Financial Strength

At current levels, Southern Copper trades at a trailing P/E above 40x, a premium to historical averages and many global peers. However, this valuation is partially offset by exceptional profitability metrics. Profit margins exceed 30%, return on equity is close to 40%, and free cash flow generation remains robust.

The balance sheet remains solid, with manageable leverage and over $4.5 billion in cash. This financial flexibility supports both capital investment across its mining footprint in Peru and Mexico and an attractive shareholder return profile.

Dividend Profile and Shareholder Returns

Southern Copper continues to stand out for income-oriented investors. The stock offers a forward dividend yield near 2%, with dividends closely tied to cash flow performance. With copper prices elevated and margins strong, the sustainability of distributions remains a key attraction for long-term holders.

Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets

Analyst sentiment is mixed. While several firms remain constructive on copper fundamentals, recent rating actions include a downgrade to Underweight from a major investment bank, accompanied by a reduced price target. The average analyst target now sits well below the current share price, highlighting a growing valuation debate even as operational performance remains strong.

Upcoming Events

Southern Copper is scheduled to report earnings on January 28, 2026. Investors will be focused on production guidance, cost trends, and management commentary on copper demand, particularly from electrification, grid investment, and electric vehicle supply chains.

The company’s next dividend date is set for February 27, 2026, keeping income considerations front and center alongside earnings.

Outlook

Southern Copper enters earnings with strong momentum, enviable profitability, and clear leverage to long-term copper demand. However, elevated valuation levels and increasingly cautious analyst targets suggest that near-term upside may depend heavily on guidance and copper price direction. For investors, the stock now sits at a crossroads between structural optimism and cyclical valuation risk, making the upcoming earnings report a critical inflection point.