Earnings Call Puts OXY in Focus Amid Slowing Momentum

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) is heading into its fourth-quarter earnings announcement under mounting pressure, as analysts project a steep year-over-year decline in both earnings and revenue.

The Houston-based energy giant is scheduled to report Q4 2025 results on February 19, 2026. Market expectations suggest a challenging quarter ahead, reflecting softer commodity pricing and moderating production tailwinds compared to prior periods.

Analysts Project Significant Year-Over-Year Contraction

Wall Street forecasts indicate:

Current quarter revenue is expected to average approximately $5.59 billion, compared to $6.84 billion in the year-ago period. Sales growth for the quarter is projected to decline more than 76% year-over-year based on current estimates.

Earnings per share for the quarter are projected at $0.19, sharply lower than the $0.80 reported in the comparable period last year.

For full-year 2025, EPS is estimated at $2.09, with 2026 projections falling further to $1.04, signaling expectations of continued earnings normalization.

Stock Performance Shows Mixed Signals

OXY shares recently traded at $46.07, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $45.39 billion. The stock remains within its 52-week trading range of $34.78 to $52.58.

Despite near-term headwinds, the stock has delivered a 12.04% year-to-date return, outperforming the broader S&P 500 benchmark over the same period. However, the one-year return stands at negative 1.66%, and the three-year performance remains under pressure.

Longer-term investors have seen stronger gains, with a five-year return exceeding 92%.

Financial Strength Remains a Stabilizing Factor

Occidental continues to generate meaningful free cash flow, reporting approximately $3.03 billion in levered free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis.

The company maintains $2.16 billion in cash, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 62.22%, reflecting ongoing efforts to strengthen the balance sheet following prior acquisition-driven leverage expansion.

Profitability metrics remain modest but stable, with a profit margin of 8.17% and return on equity of 5.95%.

Analyst Sentiment Suggests Limited Upside

The average analyst price target currently stands at $48.50, implying modest upside from present levels. Recent rating activity has largely centered around neutral and hold recommendations, although some firms have raised price targets slightly while maintaining cautious outlooks.

While Occidental has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats, forward revisions have trended downward in recent months, signaling tempered expectations heading into 2026.

Strategic Positioning in a Cyclical Environment

Founded in 1920, Occidental operates across oil and gas exploration, chemicals manufacturing through OxyChem, and midstream and marketing operations. The company’s performance remains highly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas pricing trends, making macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics central to its outlook.

As earnings approach, investors will be closely watching management commentary on production guidance, capital allocation priorities, and continued debt reduction efforts.

The upcoming report may determine whether Occidental stabilizes near current levels or faces renewed volatility amid shifting energy market conditions.