Old National Bancorp shares traded lower ahead of its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, reflecting cautious positioning rather than a sharp shift in fundamentals. The stock closed at $22.90, down 1.6%, with modest additional pressure in after-hours trading. The move comes as investors weigh near-term margin dynamics against improving growth expectations for 2026.
Earnings Momentum
Old National Bancorp has delivered a consistent earnings beat streak through 2025, exceeding consensus estimates in each of the past four reported quarters. For the December 2025 quarter, analysts are forecasting earnings per share of $0.59, compared with $0.49 in the prior-year period. Revenue is expected to reach approximately $706 million, representing a sharp year-on-year increase driven by balance sheet expansion and stronger net interest income.
Consensus estimates for full-year 2025 earnings stand at $2.16 per share, rising to $2.62 in 2026. Notably, analyst revisions over the past month have skewed upward, suggesting confidence in management’s ability to navigate the current rate environment.
Revenue and Growth Profile
Revenue growth remains a key positive. Full-year 2025 revenue is projected at $2.54 billion, up from $1.91 billion a year earlier, with further expansion to nearly $2.9 billion expected in 2026. Quarterly sales growth estimates above 40% underscore the bank’s operating leverage, particularly in commercial and consumer lending segments.
Compared with broader market benchmarks, Old National’s near-term growth outlook stands out. While current-year earnings growth trails the S&P 500, projections for next year point to an acceleration that outpaces the index, highlighting improving profitability trends.
Valuation and Balance Sheet Context
At current levels, the stock trades at roughly 13 times trailing earnings, a discount to many regional banking peers. The bank also offers an attractive income component, with a forward dividend yield above 2.4%, supporting total return potential even amid share price volatility.
Corporate governance metrics remain stable, with balanced scores across audit, board oversight, and shareholder rights. These factors contribute to a perception of operational discipline and risk control, important considerations in the regional banking space.
Outlook
Looking ahead, the near-term focus will center on management’s commentary around net interest margins, loan growth sustainability, and credit quality. While market reaction ahead of the earnings call has been cautious, the underlying outlook remains constructive. Rising earnings estimates, strong revenue momentum, and a reasonable valuation suggest Old National Bancorp is positioned for steadier performance into 2026, provided macro conditions remain supportive.
Investors may continue to see short-term volatility around earnings, but the medium-term trajectory points to gradual value rebuilding supported by earnings growth and dividends.
